• Crash on the Moscow Stock Exchange –

+++Strait of Hormuz closed again+++Oil price manipulated?++Is Trump engaging in insider trading?++Questionable government reshuffle in Ukraine+++Protests in Kyiv+++Major potential for escalation in the Iran and Ukraine wars+++Germany is becoming a party to the war+++Petrol shortage in Russia+++Drones are becoming increasingly effective+++Crash on the Moscow Stock Exchange+++Gold/silver remain weak+++Crypto markets moving sideways+++DAX and DJI weaker+++Eastern European stock markets booming+++Paprika in the Portfolio: Bucharest Stock Exchange (Romania) +39%+++Budapest Stock Exchange: +30%+++Almaty (Kazakhstan) +26%+++ATX (Austria) +19%+++

Neither the war in Iran nor the war in Ukraine appears to be coming to an end. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again after being attacked by the United States. The price of Brent crude immediately jumped by another 20% to more than USD 87 per barrel. Ukraine is now using drones not only to destroy numerous Russian refineries deep inside the country, but more recently also tankers and ferries in the Sea of Azov, thereby reducing Russia’s shadow fleet. Both wars are now threatening to escalate, with quite a few people already warning of a Third World War.

Global stock markets corrected somewhat in July, while the Eastern European markets largely held up well or even rose slightly—for example, the Bucharest market, whose ROTX Index gained 39%. Shares from Hungary (+30% in the HTX Index) and Kazakhstan (+26% in the KTX Local Index) have also been a source of considerable satisfaction, while the S&P Index managed a gain of only 9% and the DAX just 1%.

All these indices and stocks are presented in detail in the East Stock Trends stock market newsletter (next time with a Hungary special: Paprika in the Portfolio!). Despite their clear outperformance, however, Eastern European stock markets continue to receive very little attention in the Western media.

Andreas Männicke gives his assessment in his East Stock Trends stock market newsletter (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 270 on YouTube.

Is a new energy crisis now looming after all?

“TACO Man” Donald Trump is once again moving the markets. TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” meaning that Trump ultimately always backs down. First come the threats, but then the focus shifts back to a negotiated solution. Trump repeatedly threatens to destroy Iran completely, only to backtrack quickly and continue seeking negotiated solutions. It remains to be seen who will ultimately control the Strait of Hormuz. In the worst-case scenario, a major energy crisis could still occur.

It cannot be ruled out that Trump may soon send ground troops into Iran as well. Pakistan continues to seek diplomatic solutions. Iran is still successfully attacking U.S. military bases and U.S. oil facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The Middle East could still turn into a powder keg, especially as Israel continues to fight Lebanon, which Iran opposes.

Is U.S. President Donald Trump engaging in insider trading?

Is U.S. President Donald Trump engaging in insider trading? Trump knows exactly how the markets react when he makes a market-moving announcement on X or Truth Social, whether about punitive tariffs or, now, remarks concerning the war in Iran. After Trump once again attacked Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, the oil price surged by around 20% from USD 73 to USD 87 since July 7—a move that Trump and his proxies may also have exploited through long positions. Equity markets, by contrast, weakened again because of the renewed threat posed by the war in Iran and the shelling of American bases in the Middle East.

When Trump once again signals that he expects good negotiation results with Iran, the oil price will fall again, as it already did from mid-June to early July—a move Trump and/or his proxies may have exploited through short positions in oil futures markets. Bitcoin has been relatively quiet since its price decline at the beginning of the year, but Trump will also speak up again in due course and make significant announcements. Bitcoin (BTC) recently recovered slightly to more than USD 64,000.

Questionable government reshuffle by Zelenskyy sparks street protests

Trump has kept a relatively low profile on the war in Ukraine recently. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, is now causing a stir with his government reshuffle. Zelenskyy has announced a major reorganization of the government. He replaced Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko as well as the heads of several law-enforcement agencies. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy nominated Serhiy Koretskyi, the head of the state-owned energy company Naftogaz, as the new prime minister. He also dismissed Defence Minister Fedorov, even though Fedorov had been highly successful in the drone war against Russia. Fedorov wanted to create greater transparency in defence spending and thereby curb corruption, something Zelenskyy apparently did not welcome. Fedorov’s dismissal could lead to mass protests against Zelenskyy in Kyiv, further eroding confidence in the president.

In recent months, Fedorov had even gained the upper hand in his drone campaign against Russia. Ukraine attacked not only major refineries more than 2,000 kilometres away, as far as Omsk, but also more than 100 tankers and ferries in the Sea of Azov in an effort to reduce Russia’s shadow fleet. As a result, there is now a petrol shortage not only in Crimea but also in many regions of Russia. Electricity and water supplies in Crimea are also restricted.

Crash on the Moscow Stock Exchange

The Russian population is now truly beginning to realize for the first time that the war has reached Russia itself. With 40% of Ukrainian refinery capacity already destroyed, there was a crash on the Moscow Stock Exchange, while the rouble also weakened sharply, from 82 to 89 EUR/RUB. The MOEX Index plunged by more than 20%, from 2,500 to 2,000 points, once again marking its lowest level since April 2022, shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine. Whether and when Russian ADRs/GDRs or the underlying shares themselves will become tradable again for Western investors depends on the lifting of mutual sanctions and thus on an end to the war, which is still a long way off. Russia is advancing slowly at the front in the Donetsk region, but is being hit hard by drones deep inside the country.

It will be interesting to see when the first listed drone manufacturer comes to market and how it performs. Demand for drones is immense. However, it is dangerous that Germany and France are establishing joint production facilities in Ukraine. German drones will then also be used to attack Russia. NATO exercises are also expected to take place more frequently in Ukraine. How much longer will Putin tolerate this?

Risk of escalation: The West is crossing “red lines”

The West is now rearming on a massive scale and portraying Putin as the enemy. Enormous sums are being poured into Ukraine, and no one knows where the money ends up. According to Transparency International, Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Why, then, is Ukraine being trusted without oversight, even though numerous corruption cases have already become known? Germany will send more than €11 billion to Ukraine this year, the EU €70 billion in loans, and NATO USD 140 billion spread over several years. A policy of détente toward Putin and diplomatic negotiations with him would actually be the order of the day. Unnecessarily large numbers of young people are dying after being thrown into the meat grinder of the Ukraine war. When will this madness end?

A series of red lines is currently being crossed by the West that would have been unthinkable two years ago. Even Trump now approves of and supports attacks on Russian facilities deep inside the country using drones and missiles. Germany is sending €11 billion to Ukraine this year, the EU €70 billion, and NATO as much as USD 140 billion. Defence budgets are being inflated because the image of Russia as the enemy is now being exaggerated, which is the wrong approach. What is needed now are diplomatic negotiations with Putin that could make an agreement possible. Putin demands that the Donbas region as a whole become part of Russia, either through negotiations or, if necessary, by military force. Luhansk has already been captured in full, while only 80% of Donetsk has been taken. Putin still has to capture four major cities in Donetsk before a breakthrough can be achieved. This, however, will take a long time.

When will this madness end?

One wonders why so many soldiers have to die every day when, in the end, there can only be a negotiated solution anyway. Yet both sides are currently confident of victory and want to win the war on the battlefield. Russia is now suffering major damage as a result of the petrol emergency, which is entirely in the interests of the United States. The U.S. can sit back and relax because the EU is now taking over America’s role, although this will cost EU taxpayers a great deal of money. Do taxpayers really want billions upon billions to be sent to Ukraine when no one knows where the funds end up or how they are being used—not even Zelenskyy? Defence Minister Fedorov was apparently also dismissed because he wanted greater transparency. But when will this madness end? Investors would welcome a peace dividend, but that remains a long way off—in Iran as well. Companies that manufacture drones, however, will eventually come into focus.

Romanian stocks are booming: +39%!

Although Russian shares are not tradable for Western investors, there are a number of promising Eastern European stocks that continue to deliver strong gains. The ROTX Index for Romanian stocks has already risen by 39%, while Transgaz could serve as a good substitute for Gazprom. Five Romanian blue-chip stocks have been listed on German exchanges since March of last year and can be traded without difficulty; in some cases, this has already paid off through a doubling of their share prices. The HTX Index for shares from Hungary has already risen by more than 30% in euro terms, also thanks to substantial currency gains. In addition, the KTX Index for Kazakh stocks has climbed by 26%, while shares in Georgia have virtually gone through the roof. The ATX Index from Austria, which is almost half an Eastern European index, has also gained 19%, whereas the DAX managed only a meagre increase of 1%. Bank shares in particular have been a source of considerable satisfaction, including Erste Bank Group and Raiffeisen Bank International, with price gains of 38% this year and more than 100% in one year.

Eastern European stock markets remain clear outperformers

Once again, Eastern European stock market indices performed significantly better than the DAX and DJI in the first half of 2026—not only this year, but for the third consecutive year. It is therefore surprising that Western media and financial publications have so far reported so little on the excellent performance of Eastern European stock markets. The CECE Index, which includes Hungary (+30%), Poland (+16%) and the Czech Republic (-8.7%), has already gained 14% since the beginning of the year. The SETX Index for stocks from Southeastern Europe and the Balkan region performed even better, gaining 31%, once again led by shares from Romania (ROTX Index +39%!). It therefore continues to make sense to invest in Eastern European certificates and Eastern European funds.

Since March of last year, five Romanian blue-chip stocks have been tradable on German exchanges, including Romgaz (+124% since March 2025) and Transgaz (+203% since March 2025), whose share prices have more than doubled in one year. Excellent opportunities can also be found in Georgia with Lion Finance Group (Bank of Georgia +27% in 2026) and Georgia Capital (+51% since 2025 and +437% in three years!), as well as in Kazakhstan (KTX Local Index +26%). The neighbouring “B&B combination”—Bucharest and Budapest—performed best of all, with both the ROTX and HTX indices gaining more than 30%. The next issue of East Stock Trends (www.eaststock.de) will therefore feature a Hungary special: “Paprika in the Portfolio!”

The Austrian ATX Index is also half an Eastern European index, since many Austrian companies earn a substantial share of their revenues in Eastern Europe, including Erste Bank and Raiffeisen Bank International, both of which have reported very good results. With a gain of 19.7%, the ATX Index is also among the top-performing stock markets worldwide. One interesting share listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange is the Swiss company K2G Holding AG from Baar (WKN A40BDJ, price €1.65), which uses AI to analyse extensive databases in order to determine optimal prices and risk premiums for insurance companies. Complex data volumes are converted into clear decisions. The company is also active in the Baltic states. The Swiss company has existed for seven years and aims to become profitable as early as next year.

Inform yourself first, then invest

Find out more now about the background to and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis, as well as the future recovery potential of undervalued Eastern European stocks. New opportunities are also emerging in the Baltic states, Southeastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia). In 2025, as many as nine Eastern European stock markets once again outperformed with strong gains (CECE Index >50%!). Since the beginning of this year, there have once again been nine Eastern European stock markets that clearly outperformed the DAX. It therefore continues to be worthwhile to look beyond the usual markets and toward Eastern Europe.

Order a trial subscription now (three issues by email for only €15) to the monthly EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) stock market newsletter, featuring another Romania and Hungary special, a special on Eastern European certificates, extensive background information and new investment ideas such as the “Stock of the Month” and attractive certificates at www.eaststock.de, under “Stock Market Newsletter.” The latest EST issue was published on June 25, 2026.

Anyone interested in lucrative, high-yield property investments in Switzerland, an attractive long/short commodity trading system with a proven performance of 50% in 2025 and +40% in the first half of 2026, as well as two interesting Asian stocks with expansion plans in Germany and/or the EU—one of them a highly promising Asian drone manufacturer—should contact the author or the EST editorial team directly (Tel.: 040-6570883, mobile: 0171 35 75 775).

TV/radio information: On July 19, 2025, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Michael Mross as part of the MMnews Club about the top stocks in Eastern Europe. On October 6, 2025, Andreas Männicke was also interviewed by Andreas Gross on Börsenradio Networks about the new opportunities in Eastern Europe. All radio and TV interviews can be downloaded from the video archive at www.eaststock.de, including the latest EastStockTV video, episode 270. By the way: in addition to the EastStockTV YouTube channel, have you already subscribed to the new BRICS-TV YouTube channel?

Seminar information: If you are interested in new “Go East” Eastern European stock market seminars or a BRICS seminar in Frankfurt am Main or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team (www.eaststock.de). Please also get in touch if you are interested in Eastern European stock market webinars or BRICS webinars.

Order Andreas Männicke’s free newsletter now, featuring current news on global and Eastern European stock markets and the BRICS countries, at www.eaststock.de. You can also contact info@eaststock.de if you are interested in a new BRICS newsletter from Andreas Männicke.