• Eastern European stock markets are booming

+++Strait of Hormuz open, but effectively closed+++Ceasefire remains fragile+++Israel signs framework agreement with Lebanon+++Oil price in free fall+++Medvedev announces legitimate attack targets in Germany+++is World War III now looming?+++Putin and Zelenskyy vie for Trump’s favor+++Gold/silver remain weak+++Crypto markets in a downtrend, for how much longer?+++DAX reaches new all-time high+++Eastern European stock markets are booming++. Paprika for your portfolio: Bucharest Stock Exchange (Romania) +36%+++Budapest Stock Exchange: +34%+++Almaty (Kazakhstan) +25%+++

The USA and Iran have indeed signed a declaration of intent to end the Iran war, but it is still highly doubtful whether an agreement can actually be reached within the next two months. The Strait of Hormuz has been reopened under certain conditions that must be observed, but it will take a long time for the 1,000 waiting ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, insurance premiums are still twice as high, meaning that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for many ships and shipping companies. Whether minesweepers from Germany should be deployed is still unclear. In any case, the Brent oil price has already collapsed sharply since the beginning of June, falling from 95 to almost 70 USD, which is positive for future inflation rates.

But the war in Ukraine also appears unwilling to come to an end. Putin definitely wants to take the entire Donbas region. Putin is only prepared to negotiate once Ukraine withdraws completely from the Donbas region. On July 4, Putin and Zelenskyy vied for Trump’s favor in a phone call, with Putin seemingly having the upper hand. Ukraine is now very successful in shelling fuel depots and refineries in Russia, resulting in fuel shortages throughout Russia, especially in Crimea, where the sale of gasoline to private individuals has been completely banned. Putin is now angry with the EU and especially with Germany because they approve of and support drone attacks even on Moscow. From Putin’s perspective, this makes Germany a party to the war. Former Prime Minister and ex-President Medvedev has already published a list of legitimate targets in Germany’s defense industry. This could even lead to a major European war with Russia, while Trump will probably keep a low profile.

Despite these risks and inflation concerns, the DAX rose by more than 2% on July 2 to a new all-time high of 25,655 index points. In March, the DAX was still below 22,500 points. The trigger was the approval of the government’s new reform program, although it still raises many questions.

The DAX and Wall Street traded very positively from the beginning of July thanks to new prospects in the Iran war, as did many Eastern European stock markets, which once again clearly outperformed the DAX. The CECE Index (+14%), including Hungary (+32%), Poland (+14%) and the Czech Republic (-8%), performed far better than the DAX (+5%), and even better than the S&P Index (+9%) and the NASDAQ Index (+11%). Eastern European bank stocks performed even better on average (CECE Banks Index +23%). Even stronger, however, was the SETX Index (+23%), covering countries in Southeast Europe and the Balkan region, with a gain of 23%. Here, the Bucharest Stock Exchange in particular has been a great source of joy, with the ROTX Index up 37%. Since March 2025, five Romanian stocks have even been listed on German exchanges in the open market, with energy stocks Romgaz and Transgaz in particular causing a stir.

All of these stocks are presented in detail in the East Stock Trends stock market newsletter — next time with the Hungary special: Paprika for your portfolio! Eastern European stock markets are still treated very much as a neglected topic in Western media despite their significant outperformance.

Andreas Männicke gives his assessment in his East Stock Trends stock market newsletter ([www.eaststock.de](http://www.eaststock.de)) and also in his new EastStockTV video, episode 269 on YouTube.

Will there be a breakthrough in the Iran war after the mourning ceremonies, or a new escalation?

Trump remains convinced that there will soon be a good deal with Iran and that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open. A positive development is that Israel has agreed in a framework agreement with Lebanon to withdraw from Lebanon under certain conditions. It remains to be seen whether the next talks will really lead to a rapprochement and whether lasting peace is possible. The ceasefire is very fragile and can be broken again at any time.

Representatives from 100 countries traveled to Tehran for the mourning ceremonies of the former revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei, including Shehbaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Sharif and his government play an important role in mediating between Iran and the USA. The mourning ceremonies will last several days, during which Iran is demonstrating strength. There is still no sign of the son and successor. But it is astonishing how the Revolutionary Guards are now organizing themselves and mounting such strong resistance against the USA, while the trump card of the Strait of Hormuz can be played again at any time if needed. A new level of escalation can therefore occur at any time.

No ceasefire in sight in Ukraine — escalation possible

But in the Ukraine war as well, negotiations for peace have moved a long way off, which is mainly due to the Russophobic behavior of the key EU representatives, who apparently still prefer to win the war on the battlefield. The former triumvirate of Starmer, Macron and Merz no longer has any support at all among their own populations, and one almost gets the impression that these politicians need the continuation of the war to distract from their own problems and stay in power themselves. Starmer has already stepped down. Are Merz and Macron next? The upcoming state elections in eastern Germany should be very revealing.

Who in the West is controlling the corrupt system in Ukraine?

NATO now wants to provide Ukraine with another 70 billion USD in order to continue the NATO proxy war against Russia. The main burden is now being carried by the EU, and here in particular by German taxpayers as the main financiers. But is that what they want? In addition, no one really knows where the billions from the EU, NATO and also directly from Germany are ending up and how they are being distributed. Ukraine is known to be a highly corrupt system, but this is not sufficiently questioned, investigated or monitored by the West or by Western media. It is clear that there are many corrupt politicians and generals in Zelenskyy’s network who are embezzling money from the West. Zelenskyy himself could also be affected, especially since he was already mentioned in the Panama Papers.

Will there be a change of power in Ukraine in the autumn?

Not least for this reason, Zelenskyy is under enormous pressure. There now appears to be a new power struggle emerging in Ukraine, as former commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi now wants to run against Zelenskyy in a possible presidential election in the autumn, which is already causing a lot of discussion. Zaluzhnyi was dismissed by Zelenskyy as commander-in-chief of the army and is now serving as ambassador to Great Britain.

Germany is becoming a party to the war: is World War III looming?

Germany is increasingly becoming an active party to the war through its direct involvement in the construction of drones in Ukraine. Former Russian president and prime minister Medvedev has already issued clear warnings to Germany and named legitimate targets in the defense industry. Do we want to let it come to the point where bombs from Russia actually strike German soil and ignite a Third World War? Germany already appears to be preparing for a war economy. It is now high time to try to begin diplomatic negotiations before the situation escalates further.

Fuel shortages in Russia are causing discontent among the population

Ukraine is indeed succeeding remarkably well in hitting fuel depots and refineries inside Russia with ongoing drone attacks, so that 40% of Russia’s refinery capacity has already been damaged. No gasoline may be issued in Crimea anymore. The bridge to Crimea has already been badly damaged. In major cities such as Sevastopol, there is neither electricity nor water. The population in Crimea is now suffering from the war, but many regions in Russia are also affected by fuel shortages. The fuel shortage in Russia and rising prices are now causing discontent among the population, but Putin is still sitting relatively securely in the saddle. On July 4, Putin and Zelenskyy vied for Trump’s favor in a phone call, with Putin seemingly having the upper hand.

Will Putin use tactical nuclear bombs in desperation?

Ukraine is no longer shying away from shelling daycare centers, which is now making Putin angry and leading him to describe it as a terrorist act. The war is now taking forms that raise fears it could eventually spill over into Europe, and especially into Germany and Great Britain. Putin has made it clear often enough that if he sees Russia’s existence as threatened, he will use tactical nuclear weapons in an emergency. Russia’s weakness may therefore now become a danger to the entire world.

Despite geopolitical and monetary-policy risks, new all-time highs on Wall Street

Global stock markets still seem convinced of a positive outcome in the wars in Iran and Ukraine and do not believe in further escalation. The possibility of rising interest rates in the USA is also not dampening investor appetite at the moment — at least not yet. After the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the Brent oil price collapsed from 95 to almost 70 USD per barrel, reducing the inflation risk for now. Gold and silver, as well as crypto markets, have traded weakly in recent weeks because of the prospect of rising interest rates in the USA.

The DAX rose by 0.78% on July 3 to a new all-time high of 25,804 index points, representing a gain of 5% since the beginning of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) also rose to a new all-time high of 52,863 index points, corresponding to a gain of 9.34% since the beginning of the year. Among the major Western stock indices, however, the best performer this year was the Nikkei 225 Index, with a gain of 34.6% and an index level of 69,744 points.

Eastern European stock markets remain clear outperformers

Once again in the first half of 2026, the stock indices from Eastern Europe performed significantly better than the DAX and DJI — not only this year, but for the past three years in a row. It is therefore surprising that Western media and financial journalists have so far reported so little on the outstanding performance of Eastern European stock markets. The CECE Index, including Hungary (+34%), Poland (+13.9%) and the Czech Republic (-7.5%), has already risen by 15.4% since the beginning of the year. Even stronger, however, was the SETX Index for stocks from Southeast Europe and the Balkan region, with a gain of 27.8%, with stocks from Romania once again standing out in particular (ROTX Index +36.7%!). It therefore continues to be worthwhile to invest in Eastern Europe certificates and Eastern Europe funds.

Since March of last year, five Romanian blue chips have already been tradable on German exchanges, including Romgaz (+124% since March 2025) and Transgaz (+203% since March 2025), where prices have already more than doubled within one year. Excellent opportunities also exist in Georgia with the Lion Finance Group (Bank of Georgia +27% in 2026) and Georgia Capital (+51% from 2025, ++437% in three years!), as well as Kazakhstan (KTX Local Index +25%). The best performer, however, was the neighboring “B&B combination,” meaning Bucharest and Budapest, each with gains of more than 30% in the ROTX and HTX indices respectively. That is why the next East Stock Trends issue ([www.easttsock.de](http://www.easttsock.de)) will also include a Hungary special: “Paprika for your portfolio!”

But the ATX Index from Austria is also a semi-Eastern European index, as many Austrian companies also earn their money in Eastern Europe, such as Erste Bank and Raiffeisenbank International, with very good results. With a gain of 22.7%, the ATX Index is also one of the top performers among global stock markets. An interesting stock on the Vienna Stock Exchange is the Swiss company from Baar, K2G Holding AG (WKN A40BDJ, price: €2.94), which uses AI to analyze extensive databases in order to determine optimal prices and risk premiums for insurance policies. Complex volumes of data are to be converted into clear decisions. The company is also active in the Baltics. The Swiss company has existed for seven years and aims to become profitable as early as next year.

Get informed first, then invest

Inform yourself now in detail about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis, as well as the future recovery potential of undervalued stocks from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltics, Southeast Europe and the CIS republics such as Kazakhstan and Georgia. In 2025, another nine stock markets from Eastern Europe were already able to outperform strongly (CECE Index >50%!). And since the beginning of the year, there have once again been nine Eastern European stock markets that clearly outperformed the DAX. So it continues to be worthwhile to look beyond one’s own backyard toward Eastern Europe.

Therefore, now also order a trial subscription — three issues by email for only €15 — to the monthly stock market newsletter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST), including another Romania and Hungary special, an Eastern Europe certificates special, and many background insights and new investment proposals, such as the “Stock of the Month” and lucrative certificates, at [www.eaststock.de](http://www.eaststock.de), under Börsenbrief. The last EST was published on June 25, 2026.

Anyone interested in lucrative, high-yielding real estate investments in Switzerland and an attractive long/short trading system for commodities with proven performance of 50% in 2025 and +40% in the first half of 2026, as well as two interesting stocks from Asia with expansion plans in Germany or the EU, should contact the author or the EST editorial team directly (Tel: 040-6570883).

TV/radio notes: On July 19, 2025, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Michael Mross as part of the MMnews Club about top stocks in Eastern Europe. On October 6, 2025, Andreas Männicke was also interviewed by Andreas Gross on Börsenradio Networks about the new opportunities in Eastern Europe. All radio and TV interviews can be downloaded from the video archive at [www.eaststock.de](http://www.eaststock.de), including the latest video on EastStockTV, episode 268. By the way: have you already subscribed not only to the YouTube channel EastStockTV, but also to the new YouTube channel BRICS-TV?

Seminar note: If you are interested in new Eastern stock market seminars “Go East” or a BRICS seminar in Frankfurt/Main or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team ([www.eaststock.de](http://www.eaststock.de)). If you are interested in Eastern stock market webinars and BRICS webinars, please also get in touch.

Order Andreas Männicke’s free newsletter now as well, featuring current news about global and Eastern stock markets and about the BRICS at [www.eaststock.de](http://www.eaststock.de). Also contact [info@eaststock.de](mailto:info@eaststock.de) if you are interested in a new BRICS newsletter by Andreas Männicke.