Fateful choice in the USA: the choice between plague and cholera!
At the Hamburg Exchange Day on 2 November, the US presidential election on 5 November was one of the defining topics of discussion. It was referred to as a kind of ‘fateful election’ that would also have a decisive influence on the geopolitical direction of the USA. Basically, however, both candidates want to make the USA great again and rule the world, only by different means.
ESTV 239 – Fateful choice in the USA: the choice between plague and cholera
BRICS on the way to a new world order
From 22 to 24 October, 36 countries met in Kazan (Russia) as part of the BRICS+ meeting to discuss economic cooperation and a new multipolar world order. It was the 16th consecutive meeting. In Kazan, it became clear that Russia is not as isolated as the West would like. The war in Ukraine was and is a kind of catalyst for the further development of the BRICS. The BRICS are striving for their own payment system and their own ‘BRICS currency’, which is partially gold-backed. Next year, a new wave of accessions is expected, with Turkey also applying for membership, which is not without controversy.
BRICS-TV 1 – BRICS against G7: a new world order is emerging
ESTV 238 – BRICS on the rocky road to a new world order
First interest rate cut by the Fed met with mixed feelings
On 18 September, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5 basis points for the first time in four years and after eleven interest rate hikes. This is a larger interest rate cut than usual, which has also been the case in 2007. The situation is now somewhat reminiscent of 2007/8, when the Fed also cut interest rates by 0.5 basis points on 18 September 2007, leading to the biggest financial crisis in the post-war period in 2008 due to the insolvency of the world’s fifth largest investment bank, Lehman Brothers. Could this happen again?
ESTV 237 – Fed divided after first rate cut. Is it now going to be like 2007/8?
Will there be a bear market after the Fed’s first rate cut?
September is statistically the worst month on the stock markets. The first week of September was already well in line with the statistics with falling share prices, falling commodity prices and falling crypto markets. The weak US labour market data once again led to a sell-off in equities, commodities and crypto markets on Friday. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates on 18 September. The only question is how big the interest rate cut will be. The situation is now very reminiscent of 2000/2001 and 2007/8, when interest rate cuts led to bear markets. However, the change in sentiment is also reminiscent of the coronavirus crash in March 2000. On the other hand, there are often exaggerations following the manipulated US labour market data.
ESTV 236 – Is a bear market coming after the FED’s first rate cut?
Is this the beginning of a crash or just an overdue correction?
It is often the case that there are sharp corrections in August before US elections and “volatility” increases sharply. It is then also often the case that what has been built up in positive performance throughout the year can be lost in just a few days. The trigger this time was the Japan mini-crash, which in turn was caused by the unwinding of carry trades. There was also a “de-leveraging”, i.e. the unwinding of leveraged long positions. Commodities such as copper also came under pressure due to economic concerns, as did Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies, which plummeted in price.