First week in the red, whole year in the red!

There is a well-known stock market rule that says that if things go badly on the stock market in the first week of trading, a bear market is more likely to follow over the course of the year. If this is the case, investors should not necessarily invest in Western stock exchanges, but selectively in individual stock exchanges in Eastern Europe. The indices on Wall Street, the EuroStoxx 50 and the DAX were all down slightly in the first week of trading, but some stock exchanges in Eastern Europe, such as Hungary, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Romania, Bosnia and especially Kazakhstan, were up. Last year, many stock exchanges from Eastern Europe clearly outperformed the Western stock exchanges, with the Budapest and Warsaw stock exchanges leading the way with gains of over 40 per cent each in 2023. The CECE index, with Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic on board, achieved a gain of 35 per cent in 2023 and the SETX index for shares from South Eastern Europe and the Balkan region achieved a gain of almost 30 per cent.

Eastern Europe is simply the best!

Most of the world’s stock markets have enjoyed an impressive year-end rally since November, with indices reaching new highs for the year. The DAX even reached a new all-time high in December, but Wall Street was also convincing, with the “7 glorious AI stocks” in particular catapulting the US indices upwards. This happened despite the fact that the economic outlook for the coming year is very gloomy and the geopolitical risks are still very high. This is known as a “crack-up boom”, which is only driven by a few stocks.

Eastern European stock markets are booming, but hardly anyone is involved

The stock markets of Eastern Europe are still being neglected by the Western media. Yet the stock markets of Eastern Europe have repeatedly proved to be clear outperformers compared to German and even American equities. While investors in the USA are concentrating on the “glorious 7 AI stocks” such as Microsoft and Nvidia, the selection of well-performing stocks in Eastern Europe is much larger. Only a few investors have so far taken advantage of the great opportunities on the stock markets of Eastern Europe, which have now also risen to new annual highs. The HTX index of the Budapest Stock Exchange, for example, has already risen by 41% (!) in euros to a new high for the year, with the Warsaw Stock Exchange (38%) rising even more in recent weeks following the opposition’s election victory. Shares from Kazakhstan (+37%) are still proving to be a good alternative to non-tradable Russian shares.

Year-end rally despite the war in Israel and the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy?

At the well-attended Hamburg Stock Exchange Day on 11 November 2023 with many speakers and exhibitors, the war in Israel and the Fed’s future monetary policy were also the dominant topics. Nevertheless, most of the speakers believed in a year-end rally. Investment guru Heiko Thieme believes that the DAX will exceed 16,000 index points by the end of the year. Only a few investors have so far taken advantage of the great opportunities on the stock exchanges of Eastern Europe, which even bucked the downward trend on the world’s stock markets in September/October to reach new highs for the year. The HTX index of the Budapest Stock Exchange, for example, has already risen by 42 per cent (!) in euros to a new high for the year. At the invitation of Freedom Broker, Andreas Männicke gave a presentation at the Hamburg Stock Exchange Day on the new opportunities in Eastern Europe, especially in Kazakhstan and for some Russian ADRs on the OTC market.