ESTV 192 – Is there a war in Ukraine or even a 3rd world war?
Rainer Hahn in conversation with Andreas Männicke about: Russia and Cyber Polygon – Investment Strategy.
Eastern Europe expert Andreas Männicke: Russia the big winner in oil and gas prices?
Russian oil and gas stocks are booming, but for how long?
The price of crude oil reached a new annual high of 84 US dollars/barrel on 15 October. This means a doubling in 1 year. Gas prices have risen even more on the spot market in recent months. This is now fuelling inflation and causing rising petrol and heating costs for the population. On the other hand, Russian oil and gas producers, above all Gazprom, have profited from this. The Russian RTS index has already risen by more than 60 percent in one year, clearly outperforming the DAX.
Is there war in Ukraine or even a third world war?
Several time bombs are ticking
On 7 December, US President Joe Biden and the Russian president met for a very significant video conversation where both presidents recorded “red lines” that must not be crossed. For Biden, a “red line” would be crossed if Russia actively attacked Ukraine militarily. In addition to the sabre rattling on the Ukrainian border due to Russia’s troop deployment, the stock markets were burdened last week not only by the new virus variant Omikron, but also by the more restrictive behaviour of the FED in the future in the case of further rising inflation rates. However, the sharp drop in oil and gas prices in combination with Russia’s sabre-rattling on the Ukrainian border were more responsible for the slump on the Moscow stock exchange. However, if the situation on the Ukrainian border escalates, this could turn into a black swan not only for the Moscow stock exchange, but for all world stock exchanges.
ESTV 191 – Russian oil and gas stocks are booming, but for how long?
Spoilt for choice, also with shares
“If you have a choice, you are spoilt for choice! This is true not only for the Bundestag elections, but also for choosing the “right” shares at the “right” time. After the Bundestag elections on 26 September, exploratory talks will now begin between the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, what is called a traffic light coalition, but also at the same time between the CDU, the Greens and the FDP, what is called a “Jamaica coalition”. This can certainly be seen as an important setting of the course – also for the stock exchange. At the same time, in the USA the Democrats are negotiating with the Republicans about the size of the investment programme, but also about raising the debt ceiling. If there is no agreement and then a new “shutdown”, i.e. a temporary default, the world’s stock markets would fall.