• Mini crash in Poland –

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole that he will make the first interest rate cut of the year in September. This is not so much because US President Donald Trump has been vehemently demanding it for a long time, but because he sees a slowdown in the US economy following the latest weak US labour market data. However, he still fears that Trump’s tariff policy could increase inflation concerns. The US is therefore facing the risk of so-called ‘stagflation’, which will make further monetary policy measures very difficult in the future.

However, the stock markets saw things differently and initially reacted with rising prices, especially on Wall Street. On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, however, there was a price slump of over 5% for completely different reasons, because the Polish government wants to increase corporate tax for banks. Polish bank shares subsequently slumped by over 10%. Otherwise, investors in Eastern Europe have little to complain about, as the Eastern European stock markets continue to significantly outperform their Western counterparts, a fact that many investors are missing because the Eastern European stock markets are still very much neglected by the Western media.

It is therefore still worth taking a look at Eastern Europe, including countries such as Georgia and Kazakhstan, which have the highest GDP growth rates. Andreas Männicke also gives his assessment of the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in his stock market newsletter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 255, at www.YouTube.com. By the way: If, like Andreas Männicke, you want to change the crazy world a little, create more harmony in the world and are looking for a new source of energy with like-minded people, you should register now on the new social network ‘Tribe’ at https://tribe.de/free/post/4881c62c-de9d-43d9-a89d-70c459e6497f On Monday, there will be an exciting presentation of Tribe in a Zoom call. If you are interested, please contact info@eaststock.de.

FED Chairman Powell raises hopes for interest rate cuts

At the annual meeting in Jackson Hole on 22 August, FED Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the first interest rate cut in the US this year could come in September. US President Trump has long been calling for a full percentage point cut in interest rates and wants to replace ‘Mr Late Come’ in May next year because he believes the rate cut is coming too late. However, the trigger is not falling inflation rates, but rather the weak labour market data of the last two months, which point more to ‘stagflation’, i.e. a stagnating economy accompanied by rising inflation. However, he also indicated that the Fed faces major challenges and attaches greater importance to economic development than to price increases.

Equity, commodity and crypto markets react positively to interest rate cut fantasies

However, investors on Wall Street welcomed the Fed’s interest rate cut speculation. The S&P index rose by 1.5% to 6,466 index points on Friday, which is already close to its all-time high of 6,481 index points. The DAX also gained 0.3% to 24,363 index points. This means that the DAX has risen by 21.67% since the beginning of the year and the S&P index by 10.2%. The euro also gained against the US dollar, rising from 1.16 to 1.17 EUR/USD. However, gold also rose sharply, gaining 1% to 3372 USD/ounce, and silver rose by as much as 2% to 38.9 USD/ounce. All other industrial and precious metals were also in the green, as this was the signal that all investors had been waiting for. Among the market-heavy cryptocurrencies, Ethereum (ETH) rose the most, up 14% to a new high for the year of 4,781 USD/ETH, with Bitcoin initially rising from 112,000 to 117,000 USD/BTC, but then correcting back to 114,000 USD/BTC over the weekend. This means that the price of ETH has almost tripled since its low on 7 April 2025.

Trump brings movement to the peace process in the Ukraine war, but…

But there is also finally some movement towards diplomatic peace negotiations in the Ukraine war following the meeting between Putin and Trump on 15 August in Alaska, which at first glance appeared to have been fruitless, but now holds out the prospect of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky. At least, that is the wish of US President Trump. However, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov made it clear that an agenda must first be agreed upon before a date for a meeting can be discussed. There is therefore still no specific date for talks between Putin and Zelensky, nor is there a venue where they are to take place. However, Hungarian President Orban is reportedly willing to organise such a meeting in Budapest.

… the devil is in the details

The ideas on how to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and end the war are still far apart. Moreover, the devil is often in the details. It is not yet clear who will be allowed to keep which territories and, above all, who can provide which security guarantees and how these can be monitored and enforced. Russia continues to categorically reject NATO soldiers as border monitors. Now there has even been a proposal to involve Erdogan in the peace process, who would then also make his soldiers available. But there is still no agreement on this either. Meanwhile, Russian troops are slowly advancing further into Ukraine, especially in Prokowsk in the Donetsk region, which remains fiercely contested.

If a ceasefire or even a peace treaty is reached this year, shares from Ukraine in particular, but also from neighbouring Poland, are likely to benefit. However, the war in Ukraine has also led to unnecessary huge increases in defence spending in Western countries. In most Western households, however, tax revenues are insufficient to finance this additional spending, especially as economies are stagnating rather than growing dynamically.

Crash in Polish bank shares due to new tax plans by the Polish government

The Polish government has therefore come up with the idea of raising corporate tax on Polish banks from 19 to 30 per cent next year. As a result, the prices of all bank shares on the Warsaw Stock Exchange plummeted by over 10% on Friday, causing the PTX index and the WIG index of the Warsaw Stock Exchange to fall by over 5% in a single day. Previously, however, the PTX index for Polish shares had been one of the outperformers on the global stock markets, with a gain of over 40% (!) at its peak this year. After Friday’s sharp correction, the PTX index is still up 33% since the beginning of the year. However, the two other Central European stock exchanges in Prague and Budapest also clearly outperformed the DAX, with the CTX Index for Czech shares up 35% and the HTX Index for Hungarian shares up 31.7%.

Eastern European stock markets outperform

The BTX Index for shares from Bulgaria also rose by 22% (previous month: +19%), and the ROTX Index for shares from Romania also rose by 22% (previous month: +18%), already matching the performance of the DAX. Next year, Bulgaria will become the latest Eastern European country to join the eurozone. The share prices of Eastern European banks are performing particularly well. The CECE banking index (which includes Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic) has already risen by 36% this year (previous month: +43%). Some interesting bank stocks from Eastern Europe and Austria, such as Raiffeisenbank International (RBI), were presented in an interview with Michael Mross on 19 July 2015 July 2025 (see the new video at www.eaststock.de ) and were also highlighted as ‘Stocks of the Month’ in the stock market newsletter East Stock Trends. RBI’s share price rose by 20% afterwards.

Inform yourself first, then invest

Find out more now about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis, as well as the future recovery potential of undervalued stocks from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic States, South-Eastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia) offer new opportunities, with all of the respective stock indices posting gains in 2023. In 2023, 12 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best-performing stock markets in the world, with five clearly outperforming the DAX. In 2024, 9 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe once again outperformed the market with strong gains. And since the beginning of the year, 5 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe have clearly outperformed the DAX. It is therefore still worth looking beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.
Order a trial subscription now (3 issues by email for only £15) to the monthly stock market newsletter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) now (three issues by email for just £15) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan special and a dividend special, as well as lots of background information and new investment suggestions such as the ‘Share of the Month’ and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, under ‘Stock Market Newsletter’. The last EST was published on 31 July 2025 with a special on bank stocks from Eastern Europe.

TV/radio information: On 19 July 2025, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Michael Mross on Mmnews-Plus about the top stocks in Eastern Europe. On 3 June 2025, Andreas Männicke was also interviewed by Heinrich Leben on Börsenradio Networks about new opportunities in Eastern Europe, particularly in Ukraine, following the end of the war. All radio and TV interviews can be downloaded from the video archive at www.eaststock.de, including the latest video on EastStockTV, episode 255. By the way: have you already subscribed to the new YouTube channel BRICS-TV in addition to the YouTube channel EastStockTV? If you are interested in in-depth coaching from Andreas Männicke via the Tribe platform and also want to change the world, then take a look at Tribe at https://tribe.de/free/post/4881c62c-de9d-43d9-a89d-70c459e6497f and let me know what you think at info@eaststock.de

Seminar note: If you are interested in new Eastern stock market seminars ‘Go East’ or a BRICS seminar in Frankfurt/M or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team (www.eaststock.de). If you are interested in East Stock Exchange webinars and BRICS webinars, please also get in touch.

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