- War in Ukraine soon to end? –
US President Trump is now exerting considerable pressure to bring about at least a ceasefire in Ukraine in the near future. Almost simultaneously, however, negotiations on a new nuclear agreement with Iran are also underway. In negotiating the new tariffs, Trump now faces a veritable marathon of negotiations, with those with arch-enemy China being the most important. Stock market developments will now depend heavily on the outcome of these negotiations.
The tariff chaos that began on 3 April, Trump’s so-called ‘Freedom Day’, immediately had a negative impact on almost all stock and commodity markets. Fed Chairman Powell has already warned of stagflation in the US. Only gold reached a new all-time high, partly due to the increasing uncertainty. Despite the sharp correction between 3 and 7 April, Eastern European stock markets remain clear outperformers, with some Eastern European stock exchanges also proving to be exceptionally stable. In this respect, it remains advisable to invest part of your money in Eastern Europe at this time. If Trump succeeds in brokering a ceasefire in Ukraine in the near future, stocks from Poland and Ukraine, which are already among the outperformers (= Trump Trade 2.0), should benefit most. However, it will not happen as quickly as Trump would like. The situation is too complex and difficult for that. It would be particularly counterproductive if Merz were to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine as his first act as Chancellor in May.
Andreas Männicke also gives his assessment of the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in his stock market newsletter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 250, now also available on BRICS TV, episode 2, at www.YouTube.com. You can now subscribe to the new BRICS TV channel on YouTube free of charge and order the new stock market newsletter BRICS Trends by emailing info@eaststock.de. You can watch the second BRICS TV video, ‘Trump against the BRICS,’ here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zN-qTv0xz4. Please also register if you are interested in a new BRICS newsletter. You can also read an introduction to the BRICS topic in VTAD News No. 42. Here is the link to the new BRICS analysis from December 2024: https://www.vtad.de/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/vtad-news-42.pdf
Trump puts pressure on Ukraine war
US President Donald Trump is now exerting enormous pressure to achieve at least a ceasefire in Ukraine in the near future. Trump threatened to withdraw as a ‘mediator’ if no positive results were achieved in the negotiations within a week after Easter. In response, Putin initially ordered at least a ceasefire over Easter Sunday as a first concession. Selinskyi then demanded a ceasefire for at least 30 days. It is now quite possible that there will be more movement in the recently stalled negotiations on a ceasefire after Easter. It would be downright counterproductive if Merz’s first act as the new German chancellor in May were to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
Is a war with Iran now also looming?
Almost at the same time, important negotiations are now underway for a new nuclear agreement with Iran. Trump has already threatened that if Iran does not give in to the US’s demands, he will have Iran’s nuclear facilities bombed, with Israel happy to assist him. The initial talks are reportedly constructive and are now set to continue.
… and then a war with Taiwan?
With tariff negotiations now also set to begin soon, the negotiations with China will be the most important for Trump, as they continue to be about global supremacy and a new world order, in which the BRICS countries are also involved. However, this is also about raw materials. Trump wants to use ‘deals’ to secure raw material deposits for the US, although China has the upper hand when it comes to rare earths. The trade war with China could also lead to a war with Taiwan at the end of the year as a last resort.
Nothing works without raw materials
Trump is now trying to secure raw material deposits for the future through various ‘deals’ with Greenland, Canada, Ukraine and Russia in order to continue technological growth and maintain world domination, which makes strategic sense. Because without raw materials, nothing works, not even in the USA. Trump knows this very well.
Negotiations with China are of great importance for global stock markets and the global economy
The tariff chaos caused by Trump on 3 April led to a veritable earthquake on the world stock markets from 3 to 7 April. What was detrimental to Trump was that the US dollar and, above all, the prices on the US bond markets collapsed brutally, so that a few days later he ordered a three-month pause for reflection with most countries, except China. There, tariffs were even raised to an insane 145%, but then exempted for electrical products such as smartphones and computers in order to protect companies such as Nvidia, Dell and Apple. It will be interesting to see when a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place to smooth the waters.
Investments in the US dollar led to sharp price losses
Global stock markets hit their low on 7 April, but then recovered somewhat. Gold reached a new all-time high of USD 3,350 per ounce. Cryptocurrencies have recently been much more stable again. Bitcoin was able to hold its ground again at over 84,000 BTC/USD. Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar has already fallen by almost 10% against the euro, resulting in high currency losses for those who invested in the US dollar zone.
US bond and US dollar slump forced Trump to rethink
After US government bond prices collapsed, pushing yields on 30-year US government bonds back above 5%, and the US dollar also slumped, Trump withdrew all tariff increases with the exception of those on China. Only a 10% import tariff remained in place for all countries. The EU had already planned counter-tariffs for 15 April, but these were also withdrawn. Only tariffs on China were raised to 145% after China responded immediately with counter-tariffs the following day.
Such high capital market interest rates are detrimental to the high level of corporate bond refinancing costs. Real estate loans and US government bonds. Trump is now backtracking somewhat, although the final word has not yet been spoken. The actual marathon negotiations involving more than 50 countries and lasting three months are only just beginning – with an uncertain outcome. However, many analysts immediately cut their profit forecasts for many US companies. US equities were already overvalued before this.
Is stagflation coming to the US?
However, commodity markets have also seen sharp price fluctuations recently. The price of Brent crude oil plummeted from 75 to below 60 USD/barrel in April, only to rebound sharply to 67 USD/barrel due to sanctions against Iran. Industrial metals such as copper also experienced similarly sharp price fluctuations. Between 3 and 7 April, a recession or stagflation in the US was priced in, although this has not yet been officially confirmed. In the US, the seven ‘magic’ technology stocks in particular lost considerable value. The NASDAQ Comp. Index was consequently particularly weak, but has now recovered somewhat. It is now down 15% since the beginning of the year.
Eastern European stock markets remain clear outperformers even after the correction
While all US indices are now down sharply, the DAX managed to stay in positive territory with a 5% gain. However, some stock markets in Eastern Europe performed significantly better. The stock markets in Estonia and Bosnia even rose slightly against the falling global stock market trend and reached new highs for the year. If Trump manages to secure a ceasefire shortly after Easter, stocks from Ukraine and Poland in particular would benefit, which would then be the ‘Trump Trade 2.0’. The indices from Ukraine and Poland are already leading the performance rankings on the global stock markets. The UTX index for shares from Ukraine has risen by 56% since the beginning of the year, and the PTX index for shares from Poland by 21%. But the stock market indices in the Czech Republic and Hungary also clearly outperformed the DAX once again, and certainly all US indices.
A rule from portfolio theory and an old stock market adage is: ‘Never put all your eggs (= shares) in one basket!’ Given the exceptionally good performance in Eastern Europe, the correct subordinate clause would be ‘… but also in Eastern Europe!’. However, far too few investors are taking advantage of the outperformance opportunities in Eastern Europe because the Eastern European stock markets are still very much neglected by the Western media.
Inform yourself first, then invest
Find out more now about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis, as well as the future recovery potential of undervalued equities from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic States, South-Eastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia), with all the respective stock indices posting gains in 2023. In 2023, 12 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best-performing stock markets in the world, with five clearly outperforming the DAX. In 2024, 9 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe once again outperformed the market with strong gains. And since the beginning of the year, 6 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe have clearly outperformed the DAX. It is therefore still worth looking beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.
So why not order a trial subscription (3 issues by email for only £15) to the monthly stock market newsletter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan special and a dividend special, as well as lots of background information and new investment suggestions such as the ‘Stock of the Month’ and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, under ‘Börsenbrief’. The last EST was published on 28 March 2025.
TV/radio announcements: On 5 February 2024, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Carola Ferstl on Money Talk about gold, commodities and new opportunities in Eastern Europe. On 5 December 2024, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Heinrich Leben on Börsenradio Networks about the new opportunities in Eastern Europe, particularly in Ukraine, following the end of the war. All radio and TV interviews can be downloaded from the video archive at http://www.eaststock.de, including the latest video on EastStockTV, episode 250. de, including the latest video on EastStockTV, episode 250. By the way: have you already subscribed to the new YouTube channel BRICS-TV in addition to the YouTube channel EastStockTV? Here is the link to the second BRICS-TV video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zN-qTv0xz4
Reading tip: The new issue of VTAD News No. 42 features a detailed report by Andreas Männicke on BRICS as a new investment opportunity. Here is the link to the article: https://www.vtad.de/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/vtad-news-42.pdf
Seminar note: If you are interested in new East Stock Exchange seminars ‘Go East’ or a BRICS seminar in Frankfurt/M or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team (www.eaststock.de). If you are interested in East Stock Exchange webinars and BRICS webinars, please also get in touch.
You can now subscribe to Andreas Männicke’s free newsletter with the latest news about the world and East stock exchanges and the BRICS at www.eaststock.de. Please also register at info@eaststock.de if you are interested in a new BRICS newsletter from Andreas Männicke.