- Eastern European exchanges outperform –
The Trump crash and the customs chaos have not only caused confusion and consternation among investors, but are also creating new trading opportunities for experienced traders. Trump may have initially increased tariffs on China by 145%, sparking a trade war, but he has now excluded electronic goods from the tariffs in order to protect Nvidia, Apple & Co. He also wants to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping soon. He has ordered a three-month pause in tariff increases for more than 50 countries. So now is the time for the ‘dealmaker’ Trump. In addition, important negotiations with Iran are about to begin. Furthermore, negotiations with Putin to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine are far from over.
After the sharp price losses on the world’s stock and commodity markets from 3 to 7 April, the markets are likely to remain volatile, but new trading opportunities are now emerging. Gold remains in demand and crypto currencies could recover soon. There are also good investment opportunities again in Eastern Europe after the correction. Many stock markets in Eastern Europe continue to outperform Western stock markets by a clear margin.
Andreas Männicke gives his assessments of the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in his stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 249, but now also in the new BRICS-TV, episode 2 at www.YouTube.com. You can also register for free with the new BRICS TV channel on YouTube and order the new market letter BRICS Trends by emailing info@eaststock.de. You can watch the second BRICS TV video ‘Trump against the BRICS’ here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zN-qTv0xz4. Please also register if you are interested in a new BRICS newsletter. You can also read an introduction to the BRICS topic in VTAD News No. 42. Here is the link to the new BRICS analysis from December 2020: https://www.vtad.de/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/vtad-news-42.pdf
Trump helps Apple and Nvidia by suspending tariffs on electronic products with China
US President Donald Trump is about to face a marathon of very important negotiations that will have a lasting impact on the stock and commodity markets, which could open up new opportunities but also risks. Due to the now decreed pause in tariff increases for many countries except China, Trump will now hold many bilateral talks and negotiate a ‘tariff deal’ with each country. Trump has also signalled a willingness to talk with China. Trump has already exempted electronic products such as smartphones and computers from tariffs for China. This should help stocks like Nvidia and Apple.
After the trade war with China, will there be a war with Iran?
Trump has to conduct further geopolitically significant negotiations in addition to the bilateral tariff negotiations, and he has to do so simultaneously with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, but now also with Iran for a new nuclear agreement that would prohibit Iran from ever making a nuclear bomb. If these talks are unsuccessful, Trump wants to bomb all nuclear facilities together with Israel. In this case, oil prices would rise again just as sharply, having recently fallen sharply in line with Trump’s wishes due to fears of recession. So there is still considerable potential for escalation in both the Ukraine war and the case.
Good opportunities for experienced traders with many new trading possibilities
Gold remained a ‘safe haven’ with a new all-time high of 3237 USD/ounce. But silver also rose sharply again on Friday by 3.2% to over 32.1 USD/ounce. This means that gold has risen by 37% in one year, but silver only by 12%. Silver therefore has catch-up potential.
For the experienced investor, the crash days now mean significant short-term trading opportunities. Stocks like Nvidia and Apple are also being talked about again after the suspension of tariffs on electronic products. This allowed experienced traders to trade the strong rebounds on the long side from 10 April, but also to buy options on the VIX index (volatility index) on the S&P index, because it rose from 20 to 50 in a short period from 3 to 7 April, and has now corrected to 37. Such strong price fluctuations were last seen during the corona crash in March 2020. Since such panic days are only short-lived, the VIX index is now a good place to go short. In addition, there were very good opportunities if you had bet on a rising euro against the US dollar. However, the weak US dollar should now recover somewhat. In addition to gold, the crypto markets could also be in demand again if there are tendencies for the Fed to lower interest rates. Since bond yields in the US have recently risen sharply and the US dollar was previously very weak, investments in US government securities could now be worthwhile again. By observing stop-loss levels, every investor could have built up a lot of cash by now. The normal, non-professional investor would be better off keeping their feet still and going into or staying in cash. Because at the moment, the normal investor should now have or build up high cash positions. Gold remains a good investment, but cryptocurrencies could also come back.
Good opportunities for outperformance in Eastern Europe
However, most investors are completely ignoring the great opportunities that have arisen in Eastern Europe following the stock market correction. Many stock markets in Eastern Europe remained relatively stable and hardly suffered any price losses like some stock markets in Southeastern Europe (the Balkans) or the Baltic states. The stock markets in Warsaw, Budapest and the Czech Republic corrected sharply, especially between 4 and 7 April, but they nevertheless remained clear outperformers compared to the DAX and the US stock market indices.
Despite the sharp correction up to 11 April, the PTX index for Polish equities was still up 15% in euro terms (and as much as 26% in USD) year-to-date, the CTX index for equities from the Czech Republic is still up 13.5% in euro terms, and the HTX index for equities from Hungary is still up 9.5%. The CECE index for equities from Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary is still up 11.2%. However, the best performer was still the UTX index for equities from Ukraine, with a gain of 61% since the beginning of the year (= Trump trade 2.0).
By contrast, the DAX only managed a slight gain of 1.7% by 11 April, with an index level of 20,374. All US indices, however, are still down sharply, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index at minus 5.14%, the S&P Index at minus 8.61% and the NASDAQ Comp. Index at minus 13.26%. But the Euro Stoxx 50 Index is still down 2.3% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index is down as much as 14.6%. A clearer outperformance of the Eastern European stock markets is hardly conceivable.
Inform yourself before investing
Find out more about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis. but also the future recovery potential of undervalued equities in Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic states, Southeastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia), with the respective stock indices all up in 2023. In 2023, 12 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best-performing stock markets in the world, with five clearly outperforming the DAX. In 2024, 9 stock exchanges in Eastern Europe were once again able to outperform with a strong plus. And at the beginning of the year, there were already 4 stock exchanges in Eastern Europe that clearly outperformed the DAX. So it’s still worth looking beyond the end of your nose to Eastern Europe.
So order a trial subscription now (3 issues by email for just €15) of the monthly market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST), which includes another Ukraine/Kazakhstan special and a dividend special, as well as lots of background information and new investment suggestions, such as the ‘share of the month’ and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, there under Börsenbrief. The last EST was published on 28 March 2025.
TV/Radio Notes: On 5 February 2024, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Carola Ferstl on Money Talk about gold, commodities and the new opportunities in Eastern Europe. On 5 December 2024, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Heinrich Leben on Börsenradio Networks about the new opportunities in Eastern Europe, particularly in Ukraine after the end of the war. You can download all radio and TV interviews from the video archive at www.eaststock. de, including the last video in EastStockTV, episode 249. By the way: Have you already subscribed to the new YouTube channel – BRICS TV, in addition to the YouTube channel EastStockTV? Here is the link to the second BRICS TV video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zN-qTv0xz4
Reading note: In the new issue of VTAD News No. 42, Andreas Männicke provides a detailed report on BRICS as a new investment opportunity. Here is the link to the article: https://www.vtad.de/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/vtad-news-42.pdf
Seminar note: If you are interested in new Eastern Exchange seminars ‘Go East’ or a BRICS seminar in Frankfurt/M or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team (www.eaststock.de). If you are interested in Eastern stock market webinars and BRICS webinars, please also register.
You can now also order Andreas Männicke’s free newsletter with the latest news about the world and Eastern stock markets and the BRICS at www.eaststock.de. Please also register at info@eaststock.de if you are interested in a new BRICS newsletter from Andreas Männicke.