- New opportunities also in Eastern Europe –
Most stock markets had a very good start to the new year, which is a good omen. This was also the case last year, but then the Ukraine war destroyed all stock market dreams for investors since 24 February. But the world stock markets also fell sharply last year because of the sharp rise in inflation rates and the resulting sharp rise in interest rates until October last year.
Money and geopolitics will continue to keep the world and Eastern stock markets in their spell this year, with the Eastern European stock markets again having outperformance opportunities. The Prague, Budapest and Bucharest stock exchanges outperformed the DAX right at the beginning of the year. Even the Kiev stock exchange had a great start to the year, with the UTX index gaining over 6 per cent in the first trading week of the year.
The broker Zerich Securities Ltd. continues to offer the purchase of Gazprom bonds via the OTC market. Before doing so, however, one must open an account with Zerich Securities Ltd. Those who want to participate in IPOs on NASDAQ this year should also open an account with Freedom Broker. Here, too, an account must first be opened, which can be done easily and quickly via the following link: https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896. In addition, new opportunities for investing money in Kazakhstan and Poland are now opening up.
Andreas Männicke also gives his assessments of the new opportunities in his market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 204 at www.YouTube.com.
Good stock market start: Eastern European stock markets can already outperform again!
If the stock market rule is correct that if the first trading week is positive, the whole stock market year will be good, then we are now in for a very good stock market year, because most stock markets started the new year positively, above all some Western and especially Eastern European stock markets. For example, the stock exchanges from Prague, Budapest and Bucharest were able to just outperform the DAX in the first week of trading with a plus of more than 4 per cent, which after all rose by 3.85 per cent at the beginning of the year in the first week of trading. The UTX index, an artificial product of the Vienna Stock Exchange for Ukrainian shares, even gained over 6 per cent. Wall Street had a somewhat more difficult time getting going, only just managing to save itself from a plus of over 2 per cent last Friday. The rally at the beginning of the year continued in the next few days, so that the DAX is now getting closer and closer to the 15,000 mark. The euro, which rose to 1.07 EUR/USD, and the weak US dollar supported the impressive rally at the beginning of the year.
Gazprom paid high dividend
This could also be the trend for the year as a whole. Accordingly, there are still good investment opportunities in Europe and especially in Eastern Europe – with the exception of the Moscow Stock Exchange, where foreigners are not allowed to trade because of the sanctions. The Russian ADR/GDR has been barred from trading since March last year. Investors who switched to Freedom Broker were able to exchange the ADR/GDR for original Russian shares. They have also already received the quite respectable dividend from Gazprom in a special account. Investors had to set up an extra rouble account for this, but this has already paid off in the case of Gazprom.
Opening an account with Freedom Broker is still worthwhile because of the relatively low fees. In addition, investors will soon be able to participate in IPOs in the USA there again. Freedom Broker is also currently examining access to the Almaty stock exchange in Kazakhstan as an attractive alternative for Russian shares. An account with Freedom Broker is very easy to open online at the link: https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896 .
Gazprom bonds with potential
The late stock market guru Andre Kostolany made a fortune with supposedly worthless Tsar bonds. Similar opportunities are now available to investors with Gazprom bonds, which had fallen sharply in price. The Cyprus-based broker Zerich Securities Ltd. now offers that customers of Zerich Securities can also buy Russian bonds on the OTC market and also sell them later. The prices are now around 70. If the respective companies do not go bankrupt, very high yields can now be achieved. With companies like Gazprom, the probability of the company going bust is now very low, especially since the state has a majority stake. For some companies, the bonds are being replaced by new ones. You can now buy the Russian bonds through Zerich Securities Ltd. by placing an order there. Before doing so, however, you must open an account through their Mind-Money portal, which is possible via the following link https://trade.mind-money.eu .
Of the 31 Russian Eurobonds, 23 voted to remain or be replaced by new bonds. The decisive factor for trading is the indication at Bloomberg. The prices are now around 60 to 70. But you can also participate in IPOs via Zerich Securities, as was the case recently with Porsche. After the IPO, Porsche’s share price rose by 35 per cent from €81 to €110 and has now consolidated again to €102. There are also very good opportunities this year with Eastern European bonds, which you can cover with Eastern European bond funds.
Will the FED overshoot the mark?
This year, the world and eastern stock markets will again be determined by two dominant factors: on the one hand, the monetary policy of the central banks and, on the other, geopolitics. There will be very different development possibilities this year, to which the stock markets will react. It is possible that the Fed will overshoot the mark and raise interest rates too much, causing the USA to slide into recession. The labour market is still very robust. Weak labour market data could trigger a price rally, because it is then assumed that the Fed will pause on raising interest rates.
Pay attention to the US reporting season now
The tech sector had to lay off a lot of employees in Q4. However, the employees usually get severance pay for 3 months and then do not appear in the unemployment statistics for another 3 months. An interest rate pause could also happen if the US slides into recession. As soon as the FED stops announcing further interest rate hikes or even makes a 180 degree U-turn, prices will rise. If the FED raises interest rates too much, prices will fall. However, the next reporting season is also important, especially the outlook for this year. The big US investment banks are expecting profit reductions for this year as well. However, there can always be positive surprises. The US tech sector was punished enough last year and could surprise positively this year, especially in companies with functioning business models such as Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft.
Ukraine war could escalate further
On the other hand, geopolitical dangers continue to loom, such as a further escalation of the Ukraine war or even an attack by China on Taiwan, which will come at some point. But when? Western politicians in particular are now making many mistakes, led by the politicians in the USA. The USA seems to be desperate to win the war on the battlefield. It has long been a proxy war in Ukraine between the USA and Russia, which could have been avoided. Now, for the first time, the Western partners also want to send tanks to win the war. Russia could respond sooner or later with its supersonic missile.
Renewed arms deliveries is the wrong way to go, which could lead to a 3rd world war!
But it also increases the danger of a 3rd world war if one of the two parties oversteps the mark. “Red lines” have long been crossed. Germany now also wants to send Marder tanks into Ukraine. This points to a major offensive in the spring, which will cost many people their lives. This is clearly the wrong way to go, as it could lead to a third world war. There are far too few diplomatic efforts to bring about a ceasefire. This must also be blamed on the German politicians, who are now only reacting with more weapons and recently even with tank deliveries such as the Marder, thus themselves contributing to the unnecessary escalation, which may even be wanted by the USA, as the US arms lobby and the US oil/gas industry have already profited enormously.
A ceasefire leads to a price jump on the stock exchange
The ones who suffer are the people in Ukraine, and later possibly also the people in Europe. There are far too few demonstrations here against this insane warmongering policy, which could lead to disaster for Europe. Especially the Green Party, formerly a peace party, plays a very unspeakable and dubious role here. But if at some point there is a ceasefire in the summer and political negotiations finally take place, share prices will soar. The UTX index has already risen by 6 per cent this year, but has already lost over 70 per cent of its value in the last year – incidentally, just like bitcoin, which is now stabilising at 16,000 EUR/BTC. Here, too, there are considerable opportunities for recovery this year as long as the bottom holds.
Inform first, then invest
Inform yourself now in detail about the background and the development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis, but also about the future recovery potential of undervalued shares from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic States, Kazakhstan, Georgia and Ukraine.
Review: In 2018, 10 stock markets from Eastern Europe were among the best-performing stock markets in the world, all of which clearly outperformed the DAX and also the US stock market. The Moscow Stock Exchange was the clear outperformer among all world stock markets in 2019, with a gain of over 46 per cent in euro terms. However, the Bucharest Stock Exchange (Romania) also rose by over 32 per cent in 2019. The stock markets in South-Eastern Europe and also in the Baltic countries remained very stable on the plus side (Croatia +13 per cent). In 2020, 6 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best performing stock markets in the world and last year even 11 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe. In 2021, shares in Kazakhstan rose by more than 80 per cent. Last year, 5 Eastern European stock exchanges, mainly from the Balkans, clearly outperformed the DAX, and this year there are already 4 Eastern European stock exchanges that have outperformed the DAX. So even after the Ukraine war, it is still worthwhile to look beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.
Order now a trial subscription (3 issues by e-mail for only 15 €) of the monthly stock exchange letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Russia special and a dividend/bond special as well as with a lot of background information and new investment suggestions such as the “Stock of the Month” and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, there under Stock Exchange Letter. The next EST will be published at the end of January 2023.
TV/radio notes: The last radio interview was on 12 November 2022 and before that on 31 October on Börsen Radio Networks. The next one is in early March on Börsen Radio Networks. Also watch the latest EastStockTV video on YouTube about the Ukraine war and the new outperformance opportunities in Eastern European stock markets. Every 14 days Mr. Männicke is also on YouTube at, “Finanzstammtisch” of Capital-Manager.com, last on 10 January 2023. You can download the interviews and videos at www.eaststock.de, there under the heading “Interviews” as well as the videos of EastStockTV. By the way: have you already subscribed to the EastStockTV YouTube channel?
You can also order Andreas Männicke’s free newsletter with the latest news on the world and eastern stock markets at www.eaststock.de .