• Good start = good year on the stock market? –

There is an old stock market rule that says if the first trading week of the year is positive, then the whole year will be positive. If this is the case, then this year is likely to be a good year on the stock market, just like last year. Not only did almost all global stock markets get off to a good start, but precious metals also performed well, with silver (+4.5%) leading the way. As in the previous year, the best-performing global stock markets once again included those in Central and South-Eastern Europe, which once again clearly outperformed the DAX. Investors were hardly bothered by what US President Donald Trump did with Venezuela and plans to do with Greenland. More important to investors was the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Fed this year.

Bulgaria introduced the euro this year and the Sofia Stock Exchange rose by 13.5% at the beginning of the year. But shares from Romania and Hungary also rose sharply. It is therefore still worth taking a look at Eastern Europe, including countries such as Poland, Hungary, Czechia, but also Georgia and Kazakhstan, which have the highest GDP growth rates, low valuations and high dividend yields. Andreas Männicke also gives his assessment of the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in his stock market newsletter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 262, at www.YouTube.com.

Global stock markets get off to a good start, raising hopes

If the stock market rule is correct that if the first trading week of the year is positive, then the whole year will be positive, then investors can look forward to another good year on the stock market. This is because almost all global stock markets got off to a good start. In the first week of trading, the DAX rose by 2.94% to a new all-time high of 25,261 index points and the S&P index rose by 1.9% to 6966 index points. Some stock markets in Central and South-Eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, clearly outperformed both the DAX and the S&P index, as they did last year. Hopes for further interest rate cuts following the weak labour market report in the US are stimulating investors’ risk appetite. The reporting season is now beginning in the US, where good figures are expected.

Bulgaria introduces the euro: +13% on the BTX Index

Some stock markets in Eastern Europe had a spectacular start to the year. The BTX Index for shares from Bulgaria rose by 13.5% in the first week of trading because Bulgaria introduced the euro at the beginning of the year. The ROTX Index for shares from Romania did not fare much worse, with a gain of 5.27%. But the HTX Index for shares from Hungary also performed well, with a price increase of 5.37%. Last year, the stock markets in Central Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia) rose by over 50% on average, and those in Southeast Europe (Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, etc.) by over 40% on average. Investors can take advantage of this with index certificates on the respective stock market indices (see East Stock Trends, www.eaststock.de).

Trump does what he wants, and the EU obediently looks on

Once again, Trump did what he wanted at the beginning of the year, and the EU obediently looked on, even though these were clear violations of international law. Neither the attack on Venezuela, which violated international law, nor the ‘kidnapping’ of Venezuelan President Maduro can be justified by anything – certainly not by the accusation of a ‘drug mafia’ – nor can Trump’s proposal to take Greenland militarily for ‘security reasons’ for the US. It is quite clear that in both cases, Trump is primarily concerned with securing raw material reserves, knowing full well that China has clear strategic advantages here.

Precious metals remain in demand at the start of the year – crypto exchanges stagnate

China has announced that it no longer intends to export silver.
There has been a supply deficit for silver for years, but it was only last year that the price of silver rose exponentially. Silver rose by 162% (!) in one year and by 4.5% to USD 79.92/ounce in the first week of trading. However, all precious metals were already among the top performers among all asset classes last year. The price of platinum rose by 138% to £2,286 in one year, the price of palladium by 92% to £1,818 and, last but not least, the price of gold by 67.87% to £4,509 per ounce. All precious metal prices ended the first week of trading in positive territory. Investors can take advantage of this with the ETC and BNP Paribas.

In contrast, prices on the crypto exchanges remained stagnant. Bitcoin, at £90,500, is roughly at the same level as at the beginning of the year, and Ethereum even fell slightly by 1.6%. However, a distinct bottoming out is now emerging here. An interesting bond with Bitcoin as a trading instrument is now to be introduced in Germany.

Russia bombs and Kiev freezes

Following the alleged shelling of Putin’s private residence in Moscow, Putin has now responded with a large-scale bombing of infrastructure in Kiev, which has almost completely paralysed the city’s power supply. The mayor of Kiev, Klitschko, advised his citizens to leave Kiev temporarily, as it is difficult to endure day and night in a cold flat at minus 20 degrees Celsius. In addition, there is no water. The US has now seized two Russian oil tankers, following on from the Venezuelan ones, which is a dangerous game with fire.

The peace talks between Trump and Putin have now been put on hold again and frosty times are literally looming, with Chancellor Merz now even considering deploying German soldiers as peacekeeping forces in Ukraine after a peace agreement, which Russia categorically rejects and which would be madness for historical reasons alone.

Hope for peace in 2026

However, if peace of any kind is achieved this year, Russian shares could become interesting again alongside Ukrainian shares, provided that sanctions are lifted on both sides. If there is no peace, however, there is a very high risk that the war will spread to Europe, especially if German missiles land in Moscow, which is what Chancellor Merz has in mind. This should be avoided at all costs. Regardless of the conflict in Ukraine, investors should also take advantage of the significant opportunities for outperformance in Eastern Europe in 2026. But caution is advised: at 3.3%, the cash ratio among institutional investors is at its lowest level in decades, which gives pause for thought. More significant corrections would therefore come as no surprise in the coming weeks. However, the upcoming reporting season in the US is expected to bring mostly good figures.

First inform yourself, then invest

Find out more now about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis, as well as the future recovery potential of undervalued equities from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic States, South-Eastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia). In 2025, there were already six stock exchanges from Eastern Europe that clearly outperformed the DAX, and at the beginning of this year there were three.
It is therefore still worth looking beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.

Order a trial subscription now (3 issues by e-mail for only £15) to the monthly stock market newsletter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Romania special and a dividend special, as well as lots of background information and new investment suggestions such as the ‘Share of the Month’ (this time from Ukraine) and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, under ‘Stock Market Newsletter’. The last EST was published on 31 December 2025 with a special on shares from Romania.

TV/radio notes: On 19 July 2025, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Michael Mross as part of the MMnews club about the top shares in Eastern Europe. On 6 October 2025, Andreas Männicke was also interviewed by Andreas Gross on Börsenradio Networks about new opportunities in Eastern Europe. All radio and TV interviews can be downloaded from the video archive at www.eaststock.de, including the latest video on EastStockTV, episode 262. By the way: have you already subscribed to the new YouTube channel BRICS-TV in addition to the YouTube channel EastStockTV ? If you are interested in in-depth coaching from Andreas Männicke, please register at info@eaststock.de.

Seminar note: If you are interested in new East Stock Exchange seminars ‘Go East’ or a BRICS seminar in Frankfurt/M or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team (www.eaststock.de). If you are interested in Eastern stock exchange webinars and BRICS webinars, please also get in touch.

You can now also subscribe to Andreas Männicke’s free newsletter with the latest news about the global and Eastern stock exchanges and the BRICS at www.eaststock.de. Please also register at info@eaststock.de if you are interested in a new BRICS newsletter from Andreas Männicke.