• End of the war in Ukraine approaching –

From an investor’s perspective, this year can be described as ‘historic’ in many respects, as there have rarely been such high price gains and all-time highs in various asset classes. In addition to so-called ‘AI stocks’ such as Nvidia from the USA, many stocks in Eastern Europe also boomed, such as the CECE index with Poland, Hungary and Czechia on board, with an increase of almost 50%, while the DAX and S&P indices ‘only’ achieved an increase of around 2% each. This repeated the significant outperformance of Eastern European equities seen in the previous year.

However, precious metal prices, especially silver, have also skyrocketed since September 2025, which investors were able to take advantage of with BNP Paribas ETCs. Crypto, real estate and bond markets did not fare so well this year due to high bond yields and liquidity bottlenecks.

Next week will also be very important, with peace talks in Berlin involving representatives from the US, Germany, France, the UK and Ukraine, but also whether peace talks with Russia will be possible and whether the war in Ukraine can be ended in the near future next year. If this is the case, shares from Ukraine will also become interesting again, and if the sanctions against Russia are lifted, shares from Russia, which are currently untradeable due to mutual sanctions, may also become interesting again.

It is therefore still worth taking a look at Eastern Europe, including countries such as Poland, Georgia and Kazakhstan, which have the highest GDP growth rates. Andreas Männicke also shares his assessments of the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in his stock market newsletter EAST STOCK TRENDS (www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 260, at www.YouTube.com.

2025 was a historic year for investors

At the end of the year, every investor can take stock: Many investors have reason to be pleased with this ‘historic year 2025,’ as various asset classes reached new all-time highs, especially the stock and commodity markets. In addition to AI stocks from the US, such as Nvidia with a market value of over USD 5 trillion (!), stocks from Eastern Europe also outperformed this year, as they did last year. With gains of 40 to 50% in 2025, the stock market indices from Eastern Europe rose at least twice as strongly as the indices from the West, with the DAX and S&P indices up around 20%, which can also be described as ‘historic’.

Precious metals go through the roof

In the commodities sector, precious metals shone the brightest, led by silver, with gains of 60 to 100%, the strongest increase since September 2025. This was triggered by statements from Fed Chairman Powell that he would initiate an interest rate reversal due to weak US labour market data and lower interest rates for the first time in many years.

As expected, the Fed cut interest rates for the third time on 10 December by 0.25 basis points to 3.5 to 3.75%, but more significantly, it announced that it would purchase US T-bills worth USD 40 billion per month from 12 December onwards. It is quite obvious that it is doing this because there are liquidity problems due to high debt in the US financial market.

Rising US bond yields despite falling interest rates at the FED

It is noteworthy, however, that despite the Fed’s falling interest rates, yields on US government bonds rose sharply, with 10-year US government bonds rising to 4.2% and 30-year US government bonds rising to as much as 4.7%. This was one of the reasons why crypto markets were very weak, but also why real estate markets struggled. Bond prices fell, as did US property prices, especially in Florida, which in turn continues to cause problems for US regional banks.

Beware of rising interest rates in Japan

The Fed will therefore not necessarily cut interest rates in the coming months, but will pump more liquidity into the market to avoid liquidity bottlenecks, including at regional banks. In Japan, we must be careful that interest rates are not raised next year, triggering a new ‘carry trade’, which led to a mini-crash in Tokyo and a decline in the Nikkei index in August this year. However, the Nikkei index has now risen by 29% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the top performers among the major global stock market indices. The DAX rose by only 20%. The S&P index also rose by around 20%, but only by 5% in euros due to the weak US dollar. The US dollar weakened slightly to 1.17 EUR/USD after the interest rate cut. This means that the euro rose by 12% against the US dollar in one year.

Debt problems become most acute when bond yields are high

High bond yields are now also having a very negative impact on government budgets in many countries. Interest payments are the second-largest budget item in the United States and France, which is affecting the creditworthiness of government bonds. It would not be surprising if the major rating agencies were to further downgrade the bond ratings in the US and France next year. Investors should continue to keep an eye on the massive debt problems at many levels. In Germany, the insolvency rate has rarely been as high as it is this year.

Geopolitical risks remain an issue

There are also other conflict regions, such as Venezuela, where the US is taking highly questionable military action against drug smuggling. Despite the ceasefire, there are also many deaths in the Gaza Strip, with a Hamas leader now having been killed. The trade conflict between the US and China could flare up again next year, which could even escalate into a war over Taiwan. Some experts believe that Trump, with his new security architecture, will turn his back on Europe and even divide the EU in order to bring countries such as Italy, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia into his ‘right-wing camp’. The EU faces major challenges with increasing debt – partly due to Ukraine – and weak growth.

One contentious issue remains whether the EU may use frozen Russian funds to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. Putin considers this to be theft, and Belgium sees major risks if the EU were to do so and refuses to allow it.

Will there be peace in Ukraine next year?

Investors must continue to pay attention to geopolitical risks. In this respect, the outcome of the ongoing talks in Berlin with representatives from the EU, the US, NATO and Ukraine will be particularly important. However, the new peace plan that is agreed upon must also meet with Putin’s approval, which will be difficult, as Putin now refers to the EU as a ‘war party’. The issue at stake is the cession of territory, but also security guarantees. Either way, the EU, led by Germany, will foot the bill. But is that really what German taxpayers want, especially given that funds in Ukraine are always misappropriated through corruption?

Putin wants to claim the annexed territories in their entirety, if not diplomatically, then militarily. And at the moment, Putin is also making further progress in eastern Ukraine, albeit very slowly. Putin now refers to the EU as a warring party and warns against aggressive behaviour. Zelensky wants a ceasefire and a freeze on the front lines in order to then begin diplomatic talks. Turkey also wants to bring itself into play as a peace broker, but reacts allergically when tankers in the Bosphorus are fired upon by Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian drones are now also targeting refineries in Russia with increased intensity, with Germany helping to set up a drone factory in Ukraine.

Continued good opportunities in Eastern Europe

However, if peace of any kind is achieved next year, Russian shares could become interesting again alongside Ukrainian shares, provided that sanctions are lifted on both sides. If there is no peace, however, there is a very high risk that the war will spread to Europe, especially if German missiles land in Moscow, as Chancellor Merz intends. This should be avoided at all costs. Regardless of the conflict in Ukraine, investors should also take advantage of the significant opportunities for outperformance in Eastern Europe in 2026.

First inform yourself, then invest

Find out more about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis now. but also the future recovery potential of undervalued stocks from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic States, South-Eastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia), with all the respective stock indices showing gains in 2023. In 2023, 12 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best-performing stock markets in the world, with five clearly outperforming the DAX. In 2024, nine stock exchanges from Eastern Europe once again outperformed with strong gains. And since the beginning of the year, six stock exchanges from Eastern Europe have once again clearly outperformed the DAX. It is therefore still worth looking beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.

Order a trial subscription now (3 issues by e-mail for only £15) to the monthly stock market newsletter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) now, which includes another Romania special and a dividend special, as well as lots of background information and new investment suggestions such as the ‘Share of the Month’ and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, under ‘Stock Market Newsletter’. The last EST was published on 28 November 2025 with a special on shares from Romania.

TV/radio notes: On 19 July 2025, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Michael Mross on the MMnews Club about the top shares in Eastern Europe. On 6 October 2025, Andreas Männicke was also interviewed by Andreas Gross on Börsenradio Networks about new opportunities in Eastern Europe. All radio and TV interviews can be downloaded from the video archive at www.eaststock.de, including the latest video on EastStockTV, episode 259. By the way: have you already subscribed to the new YouTube channel BRICS-TV in addition to the YouTube channel EastStockTV ? If you are interested in in-depth coaching from Andreas Männicke via the Tribe platform and also want to change the world, then take a look at Tribe at https://tribe.de/free/about?ref=2002482 and let me know what you think at info@eaststock.de

Seminar note: If you are interested in new Eastern stock exchange seminars ‘Go East’ or a BRICS seminar in Frankfurt/M or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team (www.eaststock.de). If you are interested in East Stock Exchange webinars and BRICS webinars, please also get in touch.

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