- Global stock markets barely react to increasing geopolitical risks –
The assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump raises a number of security questions, as the election campaign will only really get underway when the Republicans and Democrats nominate their presidential candidates, which will be in the next few days. It is questionable whether Joe Biden, at his advanced age, is still physically and mentally fit enough not only to keep up the election campaign, but also to govern the USA and thus the world for another four years.
At the NATO summit, Biden inadvertently confused Selinskyi with Putin and then, at the latest, Biden should have been replaced as presidential candidate, which may still happen. According to the NATO summit, Germany is now to receive long-range missiles from the USA in 2026 in order to defend itself against Russia. By now at the latest, 100,000 people should be taking to the streets to protest against this, but the German people are asleep.
Investors on the world’s stock markets are also overly carefree and are not reacting at all to the increasing geopolitical tensions that could lead to a third world war, which is also completely incomprehensible. The stock markets in Eastern Europe even remain outperformers. There are now particular opportunities not only in the Balkan region (Slovenia +26%, Romania +20%, Serbia +16%, Bulgaria +14%) and Central Eastern Europe (+Hungary 14% in euros and +17% in forints), but also in Kazakhstan (+28%), all of which clearly outperformed the DAX (+11.8%).
Risk-averse investors can buy shares in Kazakhstan directly online via the broker Freedom Finance (Freedom Broker) from Cyprus if they open an account there beforehand, which is easy to do at the following link:
https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896 .
Andreas Männicke also gives his assessment of the new opportunities in Eastern Europe in his stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS(www.eaststock.de) and in his new EastStockTV video, episode 234 at www.YouTube.com.
Assassination attempt on Trump during an election rally raises many questions
The assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump during a campaign event raises many security questions for upcoming campaign events. One member of the audience was hit in the head and died, while two others were seriously injured. This happened on 13 July shortly before the Republicans and Democrats officially named their presidential candidates. For the Democrats, it is not yet certain whether Joe Biden, at his advanced age, is really physically and mentally able not only to endure the heated election campaign until November, but also to govern the USA for four years with a clear head.
Will Joe Biden remain the presidential candidate after another “slip of the tongue”?
And this in a situation where you have to keep a clear head in the power struggle “G7 versus BRICS Plus” and the danger of a third world war due to an escalation in the Ukraine war. Joe Biden not only had a few lapses in his speech with Donald Trump on CNN, but also accidentally confused Selinskyi with Putin in his closing statement at the NATO summit.
Germany to be given a leading role in NATO
According to NATO’s decision, all logistical plans and transport activities in the event of war are to be coordinated in Wiesbaden next year. A further NATO office is to be set up in Kiev. Germany is also to assume a leading role in Europe in military terms and Chancellor Scholz confirmed that Germany will fulfil this role. The EU now also wants to develop more of its own weapons in order to become less dependent on the USA and increase its defence readiness. From 2026, long-range and supersonic US missiles with a range of 2,000 to 2,800 kilometres are also to be positioned in Germany, which will then be able to attack Russia directly. However, this will also make Germany more and more of a target for Russia in the event of a conflict. Putin is outraged and disappointed by this development, because in principle he still wants peaceful co-operation with Germany after the war.
NATO crosses further “red lines”
It is already very dangerous that long-range missiles from the USA, Great Britain and France are now also allowed to attack targets in Russia directly. In a recent missile attack by Ukraine with an American long-range missile on an airport in Crimea, four civilians, including a child, died on the beach, which is a war crime. The ailing French president now wants to send instructors from France to Ukraine. NATO is thus increasingly becoming a party to the war and more and more “red lines” are being crossed. It is “5 to 12” to put a stop to the warmongering and the planned “war economy” of NATO, the EU and the USA through mass demonstrations, otherwise we are not far away from a third world war.
EU criticises Orban’s “peace mission” as EU Council President
Hungarian President Orban flew to Ukraine, Russia, China and the USA on a “peace mission” in his capacity as President of the EU Council in order to resume peace talks. He was immediately reprimanded by the EU for not having a mandate to do so. However, he speaks for millions of Europeans who do not want a war with Russia and who also want to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible through diplomatic talks. Orban’s peace mission is to be welcomed in principle, but where is the peace mission of Chancellor Scholz and the EU?
Putin makes new peace proposals…
Putin has now signalled several times that he is willing to talk and he has also made his own proposals on how peace can be achieved. The most important part of this is that Ukraine does not become a NATO member and this would also be a good prerequisite for maintaining world peace. Germany should also play a leading role as an independent, sovereign and neutral state in bringing about peace rather than trying to win the war on the battlefield, which will hardly be possible and could lead to a third world war.
… and Trump submits a peace plan under 5 conditions
However, the most important opponents in the proxy war between the USA and Russia on Ukrainian soil are the USA and the UK, who prevented peace from being achieved following the successful peace negotiations in Istanbul in April 2022. Trump has already presented his peace plan with five conditions, which he will probably implement if he is elected as the new US president in November. And according to the polls so far, his chances are not bad at all. Trump wants to force peace talks to take place very quickly, otherwise he would give up his support for Ukraine. Even under his proposal, Ukraine cannot be a NATO member for the foreseeable future, which is a very sensible suggestion.
Serbian President Vučić warns of a major European war
In the summer, not only will US long-range missiles be allowed to increasingly fire at targets in Russia, where there is a risk that Russian civilians will also die, but the FH 16 fighter jets will also be deployed. Russia will have an answer to both. However, this also means that there is a risk that the war will become even more brutal and escalate to the real danger of a third world war. This is exactly what Orban wants to prevent, but the EU obviously does not want this as a stooge of the USA.
Serbian President Alexandar Vučić also recognises the real danger of a major European war in the next three months. There are surprisingly few people in Germany who share this danger and are taking to the streets to protest in favour of peace and an immediate ceasefire. Incidentally, this also applies to Israel, where one war crime after another is being committed against defenceless refugees in the Gaza region. Here, too, Joe Biden should have put his foot down long ago and brought about a ceasefire. But he is not doing so.
Putin is also seeking military support from other countries
Putin has now sent four warships to Cuba, one of which is equipped with nuclear missiles. Will we soon have a new Cuba crisis? They are to land first in the harbours of Cuba and then in Venezuela, whereby Cuba and Venezuela are in a military alliance with Russia. Putin is now also seeking military support from the BRICS Plus countries, as well as North Korea and Vietnam. The last meeting at the “Shanghai Cooperation Organisation” in Astana (Kazakhstan), where Belarus was accepted as a new member, was not only about economic cooperation, but also about military cooperation and how to end the war in Ukraine.
The “BRICS countries” have already made many peace proposals in this regard, but these have fallen on deaf ears in the West. The “G7 versus BRICS Plus” battle, or the USA versus China for short, has been raging for a long time and will also lead to an economic and currency war in order to limit the USA’s global dominance.
New all-time highs on Wall Street
The world’s stock markets are completely ignoring the real geopolitical risks of escalation and war. On the contrary: stimulated by the better-than-expected US inflation figures in June (“only” 3 per cent month-on-month instead of the expected 3.1 per cent inflation), the US indices rose to new all-time highs and the DAX is close to its old all-time high. Microsoft and Apple also reached new all-time highs and, as the world’s heaviest stocks with a market value of over USD 3 trillion each, drove the US indices upwards. However, Tesla was the biggest gainer, with its share price jumping by over 40 per cent in one month from USD 180 to USD 248. There is hope that the Fed will now be ready to cut interest rates by 0.25 basis points for the first time in September after the ECB has already taken this step. The gold price also benefited from this again, rising to over USD 2,400 per ounce, which is now close to the old all-time high. The US dollar weakened slightly to 1.09 EUR/USD. The price of crude oil remained stable at USD 85/barrel.
Continued outperformance opportunities in Eastern Europe
However, many stock market indices from Eastern Europe performed even better than the DAX index. The stock markets from the Balkan region and south-eastern Europe (Slovenia +26%, Romania +20%, Serbia +16%, Bulgaria +14%) performed particularly well, as did those in Kazakhstan (+28%), all of which clearly outperformed the DAX (+11%). However, the Hungarian stock market has also been convincing with an increase of 14 per cent since the beginning of the year in euros (in forints even +17 per cent). Eastern European shares are considerably cheaper than Western shares and also have higher dividend yields. It is therefore still worthwhile for investors to position themselves in Eastern Europe.
Focus on Ukraine after the war
After the war, the proverbially bombed-out prices of shares from Ukraine in particular are likely to be very promising. Parliamentary elections will be held in Georgia in October and, following the new “agent law”, there could even be a new “Maidan” and thus a further conflict between the USA/EU and Russia. The EU has suspended the EU accession process for the time being and the USA is threatening sanctions against Georgia.
Freedom Broker offers market access to Kazakhstan
Via the broker Freedom Finance from Cyprus, which also presented itself at the Invest trade fair in April 2024 and attracted a lot of interest, you can also buy shares from Kazakhstan directly online, which has the advantage that you can quickly receive the sometimes very high dividends in your securities account. Halyk Bank, for example, has a dividend yield of 16% and a return on equity of 34%. At Freedom Broker you also receive interest on your savings account in USD of over 8% and in euros of over 6%. You can easily open an account online at the following link: https://freedom24.com/invite_from/2952896 If you need advice on exchanging Russian ADRs for original shares, Freedom Broker, which also has a branch in Berlin, is also the best place to go.
However, investors can still buy Russian ADRs at discount prices in the OTC market via Freedom Broker. Something similar is also possible via the broker Zerich Securities Ltd from Cyprus if you open an account via the following link: https://trade.mind-money.eu A list of tradable Russian ADR is published in the stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS(www.eaststock.de). Both brokers also offer participation in lucrative IPOs on Wall Street as well as high returns on overnight and fixed-term deposits.
Inform first, then invest
Find out more now about the background and development of the Ukraine/Russia crisis as well as the future recovery potential of undervalued shares from Eastern Europe. There are also new opportunities in the Baltic states, south-eastern Europe and the CIS republics (Kazakhstan, Georgia), with the respective share indices all up in 2023. In 2023 , 12 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe were among the 30 best-performing stock markets in the world, with 5 clearly outperforming the DAX. In 2024 , 10 stock exchanges from Eastern Europe outperformed again with a strong gain. It is therefore still worth looking beyond the horizon to Eastern Europe.
Order a trial subscription now (3 issues by e-mail for just €15) to the monthly stock market letter EAST STOCK TRENDS (EST) with another Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Russia special and a dividend special as well as lots of background information and new investment suggestions such as the “Share of the Month” and lucrative certificates at www.eaststock.de, under Stock Market Letter. The last EST was published on 28 June 2024.
TV/radio notes: On 5 February 2024, Andreas Männicke was interviewed by Carola Ferstl on Money Talk about gold, commodities and the new opportunities in Eastern Europe. You can download all radio and TV interviews in the video archive at www.eaststock.de, including the last video in EastStockTV, episode 234. By the way: have you already subscribed to the EastStockTV YouTube channel?
If you are interested in new EastStock seminars “Go East” in Frankfurt/M or other cities, please contact the EST editorial team(www.eaststock.de )
You can also subscribe to Andreas Männicke’s free newsletter with the latest news on the world and eastern stock exchanges at www.eaststock.de.