First interest rate cut by the Fed met with mixed feelings
On 18 September, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5 basis points for the first time in four years and after eleven interest rate hikes. This is a larger interest rate cut than usual, which has also been the case in 2007. The situation is now somewhat reminiscent of 2007/8, when the Fed also cut interest rates by 0.5 basis points on 18 September 2007, leading to the biggest financial crisis in the post-war period in 2008 due to the insolvency of the world’s fifth largest investment bank, Lehman Brothers. Could this happen again?
ESTV 237 – Fed divided after first rate cut. Is it now going to be like 2007/8?
Will there be a bear market after the Fed’s first rate cut?
September is statistically the worst month on the stock markets. The first week of September was already well in line with the statistics with falling share prices, falling commodity prices and falling crypto markets. The weak US labour market data once again led to a sell-off in equities, commodities and crypto markets on Friday. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates on 18 September. The only question is how big the interest rate cut will be. The situation is now very reminiscent of 2000/2001 and 2007/8, when interest rate cuts led to bear markets. However, the change in sentiment is also reminiscent of the coronavirus crash in March 2000. On the other hand, there are often exaggerations following the manipulated US labour market data.
ESTV 236 – Is a bear market coming after the FED’s first rate cut?
Is this the beginning of a crash or just an overdue correction?
It is often the case that there are sharp corrections in August before US elections and “volatility” increases sharply. It is then also often the case that what has been built up in positive performance throughout the year can be lost in just a few days. The trigger this time was the Japan mini-crash, which in turn was caused by the unwinding of carry trades. There was also a “de-leveraging”, i.e. the unwinding of leveraged long positions. Commodities such as copper also came under pressure due to economic concerns, as did Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies, which plummeted in price.
ESTV 235 – Is this the start of a crash or just an overdue correction?
World War 3: 5 to 12?
You have to see these markets!
It’s 5 to 12!
The assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump raises a number of security questions, as the election campaign will only really get underway when the Republicans and Democrats nominate their presidential candidates, which will be in the next few days. It is questionable whether Joe Biden, at his advanced age, is still physically and mentally fit enough not only to keep up the election campaign, but also to govern the USA and thus the world for another four years.