Will the Israel war be a “black swan” for the stock markets?

The Israeli war is keeping investors on tenterhooks. Investors are very unsettled and not exactly in a buying mood. Also at the Berlin Stock Exchange Day on 21 October in Berlin, where Andreas Männicke gave a lecture on the new opportunities in Eastern Europe at the invitation of Freedom Broker, the threatening large-scale offensive by the Israeli military was the dominant topic and some investors wondered whether the Israel conflict could become a “black swan” on the world stock exchanges if it were to expand into a conflagration in the Middle East. The world stock markets were already very weak last week. The chart technique is now also explosive. Is a crash now imminent?

DAX & Co flop, but Eastern Europe top!

Since the FED ordered an interest rate pause on 20 September, most world stock markets have been on a downward trend, with the exception of some stock markets from Eastern Europe. The FED kept the option open for another interest rate hike, which unsettled investors. Bond prices plummeted. Now there is even the threat of a bear market if economic data deteriorate further. The indices on Wall Street and the DAX already fell sharply last week, but gold also got caught in the downward pull. A shutdown in the USA was averted at the last minute, but the Americans are now no longer allowed to send money to Ukraine.

New extraordinary opportunities in Eastern Europe – even in Russia!

The countries Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in short “BRICS”, agreed at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg from 22 to 24 August to include 6 more countries that cooperate and do business with each other on the basis of multipolarity. The countries added as of 1 January 2014 are Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. A new internal clearing unit for the BRICS was discussed, but not yet concretised. The meeting in Johannesburg already shows that Russia is not isolated but is looking for new economic partners. The death of the head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, is likely to have consequences. Putin has a lot to be prepared for in the autumn.

What is the real state of the Russian economy?

Some African countries want to break free from the bondage of Europe and the USA and are now turning to Russia and China, not only after the military coup in Niger, but also in Burkina Faso and Mali. Russia’s influence in particular is growing there. As always, the primary real issue is the struggle for raw materials, in Niger’s case uranium. On 22 August, the eagerly awaited BRICS meeting will take place in Johannesburg, where a new gold-backed BRICS currency is to be presented. The US rating agency Fitch has downgraded the rating for US government bonds from “AAA” to “AA+” because of too much debt. Many African countries now feel more drawn to the BRICS countries, especially Russia and China. The Wagner Group is active in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, where there may be new proxy wars.